AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Alexandre Pantoja is on an absolute tear right now, and the flyweight division is running out of answers. The Cannibal just wrapped up his third straight title defense back in June, catching Kai Kara-France with that signature rear naked choke in the third round. That's five straight wins with the belt on the line, and he's finished three of them by submission. The dude's a problem. Joshua Van earned this shot the hard way, rattling off five straight wins in the UFC. He just beat Brandon Royval by decision at UFC 317 on the same card where Pantoja defended against Kara-France.
Before that, he knocked out Bruno Silva with ground and pound in the third round back in June. Van's striking volume is crazy - he landed 127 of 169 against Rei Tsuruya with a 75% accuracy rate. The Myanmar fighter's got momentum and he's not scared of anyone. Here's the thing though - Pantoja's grappling is on another level. He's averaging over 7 minutes of control time in his title fights, and when he locks in that rear naked choke, it's goodnight. Van's never faced someone with this kind of suffocating pressure.
Pantoja landed 9 takedowns against Steve Erceg and controlled him for over 8 minutes. Van's striking is slick, but can he keep this fight standing for 25 minutes? This is Pantoja's chance to cement himself as one of the best flyweight champs ever. Van's got the tools to make it interesting, but The Cannibal's been in deep water with killers and always finds a way.


UFC Record Breakdown
If Pantoja gets this to the ground in the championship rounds, that's when the choke becomes inevitable.

Joshua Van finish map

Joshua Van breakdown
Alexandre Pantoja is on an absolute tear right now, and the flyweight division is running out of answers. The Cannibal just wrapped up his third straight title defense back in June, catching Kai Kara-France with that signature rear naked choke in the third round. That's five straight wins with the belt on the line, and he's finished three of them by submission. The dude's a problem. Joshua Van earned this shot the hard way, rattling off five straight wins in the UFC. He just beat Brandon Royval by decision at UFC 317 on the same card where Pantoja defended against Kara-France.
Before that, he knocked out Bruno Silva with ground and pound in the third round back in June. Van's striking volume is crazy - he landed 127 of 169 against Rei Tsuruya with a 75% accuracy rate. The Myanmar fighter's got momentum and he's not scared of anyone. Here's the thing though - Pantoja's grappling is on another level. He's averaging over 7 minutes of control time in his title fights, and when he locks in that rear naked choke, it's goodnight. Van's never faced someone with this kind of suffocating pressure.
Pantoja landed 9 takedowns against Steve Erceg and controlled him for over 8 minutes. Van's striking is slick, but can he keep this fight standing for 25 minutes? This is Pantoja's chance to cement himself as one of the best flyweight champs ever. Van's got the tools to make it interesting, but The Cannibal's been in deep water with killers and always finds a way.
If Pantoja gets this to the ground in the championship rounds, that's when the choke becomes inevitable.

Alexandre Pantoja finish map

Alexandre Pantoja breakdown
Pace delta
+4.5 significant strikes/min
Joshua Van averages 8.9 significant strikes per minute while Alexandre Pantoja sits at 4.4.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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