AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Matt Schnell steps into the co-main event fresh off a decision win over Jimmy Flick in April, snapping a rough three-fight skid. Across from him stands Joseph Morales, who just won The Ultimate Fighter 33 with a slick triangle choke submission at UFC 319 in August. Both fighters love hunting finishes on the ground, setting up a grappling chess match at flyweight. Schnell's nickname "Danger" fits his style—he's a submission threat who landed a triangle choke against Sumudaerji back in 2022. But his recent losses came by knockout and submission, showing vulnerabilities when opponents pressure him. ...


UFC Record Breakdown
Both fighters have history finishing in round two when they find their rhythm and openings appear.

Joseph Morales finish map

Joseph Morales breakdown
Matt Schnell steps into the co-main event fresh off a decision win over Jimmy Flick in April, snapping a rough three-fight skid. Across from him stands Joseph Morales, who just won The Ultimate Fighter 33 with a slick triangle choke submission at UFC 319 in August. Both fighters love hunting finishes on the ground, setting up a grappling chess match at flyweight. Schnell's nickname "Danger" fits his style—he's a submission threat who landed a triangle choke against Sumudaerji back in 2022.
But his recent losses came by knockout and submission, showing vulnerabilities when opponents pressure him. Morales, fighting out of Team Alpha Male, proved his ground game against top competition on TUF, using that same triangle choke to seal his contract. The stylistic wrinkle here is Morales' switch stance versus Schnell's orthodox approach. Schnell showed improved striking volume in his last fight, landing 88 strikes, but Morales brings unpredictability with his stance switches and submission setups from bottom position.
Both fighters have finished fights in round two throughout their careers, suggesting neither will be content to coast. For Schnell, this is about proving he belongs in the rankings conversation. For Morales, it's his chance to make noise in his official UFC debut after winning the reality show.
Both fighters have history finishing in round two when they find their rhythm and openings appear.

Matt Schnell finish map

Matt Schnell breakdown
Pace delta
+2.1 significant strikes/min
Matt Schnell averages 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Joseph Morales sits at 2.0.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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