UFC Fight Night
Sep 12, 2026In 54 daysDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

POWERED BY AGENTMMA.COM

Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Joseph Morales 2.0 SLpM, Brandon Moreno 3.8 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Joseph Morales 40%, Brandon Moreno 44%
  • Damage Avoidance: Joseph Morales 2.0 abs/min, Brandon Moreno 3.6 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Joseph Morales 42%, Brandon Moreno 39%
  • Takedown Defense: Joseph Morales 26%, Brandon Moreno 65%
  • Submission Threat: Joseph Morales 3.0 per 15m, Brandon Moreno 0.4 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Joseph Morales
Brandon Moreno

Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Joseph Morales
3-2UFC Record
Sub (71%)
Losses (29%)
Brandon Moreno
13-7UFC Record
KO/TKO (13%)
Sub (19%)
Decision (39%)
Losses (29%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy40%
Grappling Efficiency60%
Takedown Defense26%
Cardio & Endurance70%
Fight IQ85%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy44%
Grappling Efficiency50%
Takedown Defense65%
Cardio & Endurance76%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Joseph Morales
Brandon Moreno

Brandon Moreno is in a rough spot right now. The former champ has dropped three of his last four, including that brutal second round finish against Tatsuro Taira back in December where he got caught with punches from back control. Then Lone'er Kavanagh outpointed him in Mexico City in February. For a guy who used to be on top of the flyweight world, this is a tough stretch. But here's the thing, Moreno's still dangerous and he's fighting at Noche UFC, which always brings out something special in Mexican fighters.

Key Storylines
  • Former champ Moreno desperately needs to stop the skid
  • Morales riding high with two straight submission finishes
  • Grappler versus volume striker at Noche UFC
Finishing Window

If Morales is going to get the finish, it's happening in rounds one or two when he's fresh and hunting for that choke.

Joseph Morales is coming in hot with back to back submission wins. He choked out Matt Schnell with a guillotine in under three minutes last November, then caught Alibi Idiris in a triangle from bottom guard in August. The Team Alpha Male product has been in the UFC since 2017, and while he's had his ups and downs (that knockout loss to Deiveson Figueiredo back in 2018 still stings), he's clearly found his groove with the submissions lately. This is a classic styles clash. Moreno's still got that slick boxing and cardio for days, even if the results haven't been there.

He landed 132 strikes against Amir Albazi and 95 against Steve Erceg in those five round wars. Morales is hunting for necks and looking to drag this to the mat. The switch stance adds wrinkles, and if Moreno gets careless, that guillotine is waiting. But can Morales hang with Moreno's pace and volume over three rounds? That's the real question.

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Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno Stats Comparison

Age
31
32
Height
5'6" (168 cm)
5'7" (170 cm)
Weight
125 lbs (57 kg)
125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
70" (178 cm)
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.8 significant strikes/min

Brandon Moreno averages 3.8 significant strikes per minute while Joseph Morales sits at 2.0.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Joseph Morales and Brandon Moreno, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Morales vs Moreno odds

Live Polymarket odds for Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

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