AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Two bantamweights riding hot streaks collide at the APEX. Ricky Simon has won his last two, including a first-round knockout of Javid Basharat in February and a decision over Cameron Smotherman in June. Raoni Barcelos is on a three-fight win streak, most recently outpointing former champion Cody Garbrandt and upsetting rising prospect Payton Talbott at UFC 311. This is a classic grappler-versus-grappler battle with different flavors. Simon from American Top Team Portland brings wrestling pressure and control—he held over nine minutes of cage time against Smotherman. ...


UFC Record Breakdown
Watch for grappling exchanges in rounds two and three where either man could find a finish or control the pace.

Ricky Simon finish map

Ricky Simon breakdown
Two bantamweights riding hot streaks collide at the APEX. Ricky Simon has won his last two, including a first-round knockout of Javid Basharat in February and a decision over Cameron Smotherman in June. Raoni Barcelos is on a three-fight win streak, most recently outpointing former champion Cody Garbrandt and upsetting rising prospect Payton Talbott at UFC 311. This is a classic grappler-versus-grappler battle with different flavors.
Simon from American Top Team Portland brings wrestling pressure and control—he held over nine minutes of cage time against Smotherman. Barcelos, the Brazilian veteran, is more submission-focused, finishing Cristian Quinonez with a rear-naked choke in round three back in February 2024. The age factor adds intrigue. Barcelos is defying Father Time with his current run, showing he's recovered well from past injuries.
Simon, younger and surging, landed three takedowns in his last decision win and has shown he can finish fights quickly when opportunities arise. Both are orthodox fighters who'll be looking to impose their grappling games, making scrambles and transitions critical. This fight could determine who moves closer to the rankings conversation in a stacked bantamweight division.
Watch for grappling exchanges in rounds two and three where either man could find a finish or control the pace.

Raoni Barcelos finish map

Raoni Barcelos breakdown
Pace delta
+2.1 significant strikes/min
Raoni Barcelos averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute while Ricky Simon sits at 3.0.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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