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UFC Record Breakdown
This bantamweight scrap has serious heat behind it. Ricky Simon's been grinding in the division for years, and after that brutal knockout of Javid Basharat back in February 2025, he showed he's got real finishing power to go with his wrestling. But he's coming off a tough loss to Raoni Barcelos in November, so he needs this one bad. Adrian Yanez is the opposite story. Dude's got dynamite in his hands and loves to put on a show, but he's dropped three of his last four, including that close split decision to Daniel Marcos in December. Both guys are fighting for their UFC lives here.
Round one is crucial because if Yanez doesn't land early, Simon's going to make this a long, grinding night.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Simon's a grinder from American Top Team Portland who wants to wrestle you into the mat and make it ugly. He landed three takedowns against Cameron Smotherman back in June and controlled him for over nine minutes. Yanez out of Metro Fight Club is all about that striking game. When he flatlined Vinicius Salvador in under three minutes back in May 2024, it was a reminder of how dangerous his hands are. But those losses to Jonathan Martinez (leg kicks) and Rob Font (got caught clean) show he can be figured out.
The technical battle is fascinating. Simon's going to shoot early and often, trying to drain Yanez's gas tank and take away that boxing. Yanez needs to keep it standing and make Simon pay every time he shoots. That Martinez fight haunts him though, getting chopped down with leg kicks in round two. Simon's durable enough to survive the early storm and turn this into a wrestling match.
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Adrian Yanez breakdown
Adrian Yanez's recent form
This bantamweight scrap has serious heat behind it. Ricky Simon's been grinding in the division for years, and after that brutal knockout of Javid Basharat back in February 2025, he showed he's got real finishing power to go with his wrestling. But he's coming off a tough loss to Raoni Barcelos in November, so he needs this one bad. Adrian Yanez is the opposite story. Dude's got dynamite in his hands and loves to put on a show, but he's dropped three of his last four, including that close split decision to Daniel Marcos in December. Both guys are fighting for their UFC lives here.
Round one is crucial because if Yanez doesn't land early, Simon's going to make this a long, grinding night.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Simon's a grinder from American Top Team Portland who wants to wrestle you into the mat and make it ugly. He landed three takedowns against Cameron Smotherman back in June and controlled him for over nine minutes. Yanez out of Metro Fight Club is all about that striking game. When he flatlined Vinicius Salvador in under three minutes back in May 2024, it was a reminder of how dangerous his hands are. But those losses to Jonathan Martinez (leg kicks) and Rob Font (got caught clean) show he can be figured out.
The technical battle is fascinating. Simon's going to shoot early and often, trying to drain Yanez's gas tank and take away that boxing. Yanez needs to keep it standing and make Simon pay every time he shoots. That Martinez fight haunts him though, getting chopped down with leg kicks in round two. Simon's durable enough to survive the early storm and turn this into a wrestling match.
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Ricky Simon breakdown
Ricky Simon's recent form
Pace delta
+3.2 significant strikes/min
Adrian Yanez averages 6.2 significant strikes per minute while Ricky Simon sits at 3.0.
AI confidence
79%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Adrian Yanez vs Ricky Simon odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
