Luke Riley vs Kai III

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Jul 11, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

agentmma.com

Luke Riley

Record: 14-0-0

agentmma.com

Kai III

Record: 18-8-1

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Luke Riley

Kai III

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Luke Riley

Kai III

Luke Riley vs Kai III AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Luke Riley vs Kai III

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Luke Riley

KO/TKO (67%)

Decision (33%)

Kai III

Decision (57%)

Losses (43%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy58%

Grappling Efficiency50%

Takedown Defense37%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ85%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy59%

Grappling Efficiency53%

Takedown Defense55%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Luke Riley

Kai III

View Profile

From opening bell, Luke Riley can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 6.7 significant strikes per minute while Kai III looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

View Profile

Streak:3

Luke Riley

Luke Riley finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (67%)

Decision (33%)

Luke Riley breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy58%

Grappling Efficiency50%

Takedown Defense37%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ85%

Luke Riley's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Kai III must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Kai III owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (53%) but must solve the 37% sprawl from Luke Riley.

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

View Profile

Kai III

Kai III finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

Decision (57%)

Losses (43%)

Kai III breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy59%

Grappling Efficiency53%

Takedown Defense55%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ80%

Kai III's recent form

Luke Riley vs Kai III Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

5'9" (175 cm)

•

5'7" (170 cm)

Weight

145 lbs (66 kg)

•

145 lbs (66 kg)

Reach

69" (175 cm)

•

69" (175 cm)

Stance

Orthodox

•

Orthodox

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Luke Riley vs Kai III AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.2 significant strikes/min

Luke Riley averages 6.7 significant strikes per minute while Kai III sits at 5.5.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Luke Riley and Kai III, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Luke Riley vs Kai III.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

Model score and full reasoning inside

Riley vs III odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Luke Riley vs Kai III, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Riley vs III

Luke Riley vs Kai III is on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 card on Jul 11, 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Riley vs III: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.