UFC Fight Night
Sep 26, 2026In 37 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Raoni Barcelos 4.9 SLpM, Raul Rosas Jr. 1.5 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Raoni Barcelos 51%, Raul Rosas Jr. 44%
  • Damage Avoidance: Raoni Barcelos 4.4 abs/min, Raul Rosas Jr. 1.4 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Raoni Barcelos 31%, Raul Rosas Jr. 41%
  • Takedown Defense: Raoni Barcelos 87%, Raul Rosas Jr. —
  • Submission Threat: Raoni Barcelos 0.6 per 15m, Raul Rosas Jr. 1.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Raoni Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr.

Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Raoni Barcelos
11-4UFC Record
KO/TKO (14%)
Sub (14%)
Decision (50%)
Losses (21%)
Raul Rosas Jr.
6-1UFC Record
KO/TKO (15%)
Sub (29%)
Decision (44%)
Losses (13%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy51%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense87%
Cardio & Endurance79%
Fight IQ90%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy44%
Grappling Efficiency51%
Cardio & Endurance76%
Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Raoni Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr.

This is wild. Raul Rosas Jr. gets his first UFC main event at just 21 years old, and he's doing it against a veteran who's been finishing dudes since before Rosas could drive. Barcelos is coming off four straight wins, including a decision over Payton Talbott at UFC 311 and a unanimous nod over former champ Cody Garbrandt. The Brazilian has been on an absolute tear, and now he's standing across from the kid everyone's been hyping since he was a teenager. Rosas has been perfect since that early loss, rattling off five straight including a nasty rear naked choke over Ricky Turcios and a decision over Rob Font back in March.

Key Storylines
  • Rosas Jr. headlines his first UFC card at 21
  • Barcelos riding four straight wins over elite competition
  • Youth and creativity versus veteran patience and power
Finishing Window

Expect the action to heat up in round two when Barcelos starts timing Rosas' entries and the kid has to decide between wrestling and standing.

The 10th Planet product can switch stances, find takedowns, and he's not afraid to get weird with it. But here's the thing, Barcelos has seen it all. The dude submitted Cristian Quinonez in round three back in 2024 and just keeps grinding through ranked competition. The matchup is fascinating because Rosas loves to mix it up and get creative, while Barcelos is patient and dangerous everywhere. Rosas landed 98 strikes against Aoriqileng at UFC 306, showing he can push a pace.

Barcelos though? He's got that veteran calm, that ability to make you pay when you get too wild. Both guys can finish, both can wrestle, and neither is backing down from a firefight. This is Rosas' chance to prove he belongs in main events. For Barcelos, it's about showing the young gun still has levels to climb.

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Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. Stats Comparison

Age
39
21
Height
5'7" (170 cm)
5'9" (175 cm)
Weight
135 lbs (61 kg)
135 lbs (61 kg)
Reach
67" (170 cm)
67" (170 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Switch
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. AI Analysis

Pace delta

+3.4 significant strikes/min

Raoni Barcelos averages 4.9 significant strikes per minute while Raul Rosas Jr. sits at 1.5.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Raoni Barcelos and Raul Rosas Jr., then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr..

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Barcelos vs Rosas Jr. odds

Live Polymarket odds for Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Barcelos vs Rosas Jr.

Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. is on the UFC Fight Night card on Sep 26, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Barcelos vs Rosas Jr.: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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