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UFC Record Breakdown
Mason Jones just banked a $100K Fight of the Night bonus against Axel Sola back in March, and now he's looking to keep that momentum rolling against MarQuel Mederos in Sacramento. Jones earned that bonus the hard way, landing 123 strikes in a decision win that showed he's still got that Welsh fire. Mederos is riding his own hot streak though, coming off three straight wins including a unanimous decision over Mark Choinski last June where he landed 115 strikes at a nasty 68% clip. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are orthodox strikers who love to let their hands go, but they get there differently.
If Jones is gonna get the finish, it happens in round two when his power shots start landing clean.
Jones showed against Bolaji Oki in Paris that he can finish fights violently, dropping elbows from mount for a second round TKO. Mederos is more of a volume guy who breaks you down over three rounds. That fight with Austin Hubbard in Mexico City? He landed 57 of 81 strikes at 70% accuracy and controlled the pace for 93 seconds. The big question is whether Jones can recapture that finishing instinct or if Mederos' pressure game forces another decision.
Jones has that one loss to Ludovit Klein back in 2022, but he's looked sharp since returning to the UFC. Mederos had that majority draw with Chris Padilla at UFC 327, which snapped his win streak but showed he can hang in close fights. Both guys train at legit camps, MMA Lab versus Pedro Bessa BJJ, so the preparation is there.
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MarQuel Mederos breakdown
MarQuel Mederos's recent form
Mason Jones just banked a $100K Fight of the Night bonus against Axel Sola back in March, and now he's looking to keep that momentum rolling against MarQuel Mederos in Sacramento. Jones earned that bonus the hard way, landing 123 strikes in a decision win that showed he's still got that Welsh fire. Mederos is riding his own hot streak though, coming off three straight wins including a unanimous decision over Mark Choinski last June where he landed 115 strikes at a nasty 68% clip. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are orthodox strikers who love to let their hands go, but they get there differently.
If Jones is gonna get the finish, it happens in round two when his power shots start landing clean.
Jones showed against Bolaji Oki in Paris that he can finish fights violently, dropping elbows from mount for a second round TKO. Mederos is more of a volume guy who breaks you down over three rounds. That fight with Austin Hubbard in Mexico City? He landed 57 of 81 strikes at 70% accuracy and controlled the pace for 93 seconds. The big question is whether Jones can recapture that finishing instinct or if Mederos' pressure game forces another decision.
Jones has that one loss to Ludovit Klein back in 2022, but he's looked sharp since returning to the UFC. Mederos had that majority draw with Chris Padilla at UFC 327, which snapped his win streak but showed he can hang in close fights. Both guys train at legit camps, MMA Lab versus Pedro Bessa BJJ, so the preparation is there.
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Mason Jones finish map
Mason Jones breakdown
Mason Jones's recent form
Pace delta
+1.1 significant strikes/min
Mason Jones averages 6.0 significant strikes per minute while MarQuel Mederos sits at 4.8.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
