Jon JonesvsAlex Pereira

From opening bell, Jon Jones can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.4 significant strikes per minute while Alex Pereira looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and a sharper blend of volume and takedown efficiency could flip the entire narrative. Alex Pereira must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Alex Pereira owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (50%) but must solve the 95% sprawl from Jon Jones.

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.