UFC 328 sees rare double occurrence: fighters with 8+ takedowns lose title bouts

UFC 328 witnessed an unusual statistical anomaly when two fighters who landed eight or more takedowns each lost their respective title fights. Historically, fighters who complete five or more takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81.08 percent of the time, while those with seven or more takedowns win at an 83 percent rate. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns while Kai Asakura landed eight, both with significant control time, yet both lost their championship fights. The post analyzes that while elite-level wrestlers maintain roughly 80 percent win probability, total well-roundedness in MMA remains superior to specialized wrestling. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, timing, and opponent quality can drastically shift these percentages. The analysis suggests that Chimaev's striking potential, if more fully developed with proper coaching and strategy, could make him a more complete and dangerous fighter.