Alexander Volkanovski is showing extreme confidence!!! A big talking point heading into UFC 333 was will Alexander Volkanovski be able to neutralize the incredible grappling of Movsar Evloev ahead one of the most hyped featherweight fights in history. Volk however is showing no fear of the wrestling saying if they go 5 rounds straight wrestling with no striking exchanges, Volk thinks he wins that which goes completely against the narrative heading into the fight. History is also on the line as if Volkanovski gets his hand raised he will pass the legend Jose Aldo in the most title fight wins in Featherweight history. @kalshi gives Alexander Volkanovski a 50% chance of beating Movsar Evloev at UFC 333
Alexander Volkanovski is brushing aside the idea that Movsar Evloev's wrestling is a problem he can't solve. Ahead of their featherweight title fight at UFC 333, the champion says that if the two spent five rounds doing nothing but wrestling, with no striking exchanges, he believes he would win it.
The claim runs against the main narrative around the fight, which has centered on whether Volkanovski can neutralize Evloev's grappling. A win would also carry historical weight: Volkanovski would pass Jose Aldo for the most title fight wins in featherweight history. The prediction market Kalshi, meanwhile, has the bout at 50 percent for Volkanovski.
The champion
Volkanovski, 38, is 28-4 and ranked third in the pound-for-pound standings. The Australian has won his last two recorded fights, both unanimous decisions over Diego Lopes in five-round title bouts, the most recent on January 31, 2026 at UFC 325. His last recorded defeat came by second-round KO/TKO against Ilia Topuria in February 2024.
His numbers are built on striking: 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute at 57 percent accuracy. Takedowns are a smaller part of his game at 1.63 per 15 minutes, which makes his wrestling confidence the more notable part of the claim.
The challenger
Evloev, 32, is unbeaten at 20-0 and ranked number one at featherweight. The Russian, who trains at American Top Team, most recently beat Lerone Murphy by majority decision over five rounds on March 21, 2026. That followed unanimous decisions over Aljamain Sterling and Arnold Allen.
His grappling output is the core of his reputation. Evloev averages 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, nearly three times Volkanovski's rate of 1.63. He lands 3.91 significant strikes per minute at 47 percent accuracy.
Why it matters
- The numbers frame a clear style contrast: Volkanovski out-lands Evloev by 2.08 significant strikes per minute and by ten points of accuracy, while Evloev's takedown rate is 3.15 per 15 minutes higher.
- Evloev's recent wins have all gone the distance, including a full five rounds against Murphy, while Volkanovski has just completed two five-round title fights.
- A Volkanovski win would give him a record that has belonged to Aldo, and would be a notable result for a champion who turns 39 in the weeks around the fight.
- Evloev's perfect record is also on the line, with a first title shot at stake.
The size gap is small. Volkanovski stands 168 cm to Evloev's 170 cm, and holds a one-inch reach edge at 71 inches to 72, in Evloev's favor.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
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