AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Justin Tafa is coming off a brutal night at UFC 312 where Tallison Teixeira caught him with an elbow just 35 seconds in. That's the kind of loss that stings, especially fighting at home in Sydney. Now he's got another chance to bounce back, and this time he's moving up to heavyweight where his power can really shine. Fans remember when Tafa was sleeping dudes in the first round, like that nasty knockout of Parker Porter in 66 seconds back at UFC 284. Billy Elekana is riding high after back to back wins at light heavyweight.
He choked out Kevin Christian in the first round, then grinded out a decision over Ibo Aslan. The dude's got a solid ground game, but now he's stepping up to heavyweight for the first time in the UFC. That's a big jump, and Tafa hits way harder than anyone he's faced recently. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are southpaws who like to get after it, but Tafa's got that one punch power that can end your night in a blink.
Elekana's more of a grinder who wants to drag you into deep water and make you uncomfortable. If this hits the ground, Elekana's got the advantage. But Tafa only needs one clean shot to remind everyone why they call him Bad Man.
UFC Record Breakdown
If Tafa's gonna get it done, it happens early before Elekana can turn this into a wrestling match.

Billy Elekana finish map

Billy Elekana breakdown
Justin Tafa is coming off a brutal night at UFC 312 where Tallison Teixeira caught him with an elbow just 35 seconds in. That's the kind of loss that stings, especially fighting at home in Sydney. Now he's got another chance to bounce back, and this time he's moving up to heavyweight where his power can really shine. Fans remember when Tafa was sleeping dudes in the first round, like that nasty knockout of Parker Porter in 66 seconds back at UFC 284. Billy Elekana is riding high after back to back wins at light heavyweight.
He choked out Kevin Christian in the first round, then grinded out a decision over Ibo Aslan. The dude's got a solid ground game, but now he's stepping up to heavyweight for the first time in the UFC. That's a big jump, and Tafa hits way harder than anyone he's faced recently. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are southpaws who like to get after it, but Tafa's got that one punch power that can end your night in a blink.
Elekana's more of a grinder who wants to drag you into deep water and make you uncomfortable. If this hits the ground, Elekana's got the advantage. But Tafa only needs one clean shot to remind everyone why they call him Bad Man.
If Tafa's gonna get it done, it happens early before Elekana can turn this into a wrestling match.

Justin Tafa finish map

Justin Tafa breakdown
Pace delta
+1.4 significant strikes/min
Justin Tafa averages 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Billy Elekana sits at 2.7.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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