Analyzing fighters...
AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Erik Silva is stepping back into the Octagon in Mexico City, and man, he needs this one bad. The King has dropped his last two, including that brutal 44 second leg injury TKO against Muhammad Naimov at this same venue back in 2024. Before that, TJ Brown locked up an arm triangle in the third round at UFC 282. Silva's got the skills, landed 76% of his strikes and hit 3 of 4 takedowns in that Brown fight, but he's gotta find a way to close the show. Francis Marshall brings his own set of problems to the table.
If Silva can drag this to the ground early, we might see a finish in rounds one or two, but if Marshall keeps it standing and finds his range, the later rounds could get dangerous.
Fire just came off a split decision loss to Mairon Santos at UFC 313 in March, where he threw a crazy 179 strikes but only landed 36%. That's a lot of energy spent for not enough damage. Before that though, Marshall showed he can get it done with a split decision win over Dennis Buzukja last August. His UFC run has been a rollercoaster, dropping fights to Isaac Dulgarian via brutal ground and pound elbows and William Gomis by split decision, but he also starched Marcelo Rojo with a second round punch. This is a classic crossroads fight at featherweight.
Both guys are hunting for momentum, both orthodox strikers who know they need to make a statement. Silva's got the grappling edge on paper, Marshall's got the volume striking game. Someone's getting back in the win column, someone's staring down a rough losing streak.
Erik Silva finish map
Erik Silva breakdown
Erik Silva's recent form
Erik Silva is stepping back into the Octagon in Mexico City, and man, he needs this one bad. The King has dropped his last two, including that brutal 44 second leg injury TKO against Muhammad Naimov at this same venue back in 2024. Before that, TJ Brown locked up an arm triangle in the third round at UFC 282. Silva's got the skills, landed 76% of his strikes and hit 3 of 4 takedowns in that Brown fight, but he's gotta find a way to close the show. Francis Marshall brings his own set of problems to the table.
If Silva can drag this to the ground early, we might see a finish in rounds one or two, but if Marshall keeps it standing and finds his range, the later rounds could get dangerous.
Fire just came off a split decision loss to Mairon Santos at UFC 313 in March, where he threw a crazy 179 strikes but only landed 36%. That's a lot of energy spent for not enough damage. Before that though, Marshall showed he can get it done with a split decision win over Dennis Buzukja last August. His UFC run has been a rollercoaster, dropping fights to Isaac Dulgarian via brutal ground and pound elbows and William Gomis by split decision, but he also starched Marcelo Rojo with a second round punch. This is a classic crossroads fight at featherweight.
Both guys are hunting for momentum, both orthodox strikers who know they need to make a statement. Silva's got the grappling edge on paper, Marshall's got the volume striking game. Someone's getting back in the win column, someone's staring down a rough losing streak.
Francis Marshall finish map
Francis Marshall breakdown
Francis Marshall's recent form
Pace delta
+1.4 significant strikes/min
Francis Marshall averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute while Erik Silva sits at 2.1.
AI confidence
81%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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