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UFC Record Breakdown
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Ryan Gandra steps into the Octagon looking to get his first UFC win, and he's doing it in front of a wild Mexico City crowd against Jose Daniel Medina. Here's the thing: Medina's had a brutal run in the UFC. He got finished in the first round twice, caught by a nasty rear naked choke from Dusko Todorovic and then ate a brutal knee from Ateba Gautier. Before that, he went the distance with Zachary Reese but lost a clear decision. Three straight losses is a tough spot to be in.
If Gandra's going to get a finish, it'll likely come in that first round when Medina's been most vulnerable.
Gandra's the fresh blood here, making his debut on the prelims at Arena CDMX. We don't have his full fight history yet, but the UFC clearly sees something in him to book this matchup. Medina fights orthodox and has shown he can survive into the later rounds, but those early finishes are a red flag. When the pressure comes, he's cracked. This feels like a classic UFC matchup where one guy needs to prove he belongs and the other guy desperately needs to stop the bleeding.
Medina's been in there with legit competition, so he knows what Octagon jitters feel like. Gandra's walking into a building that's going to be absolutely electric. The question is whether Medina can use that experience or if Gandra's got the tools to make it four straight losses for Chicho. The bout survived the recent card shakeup that saw the main event get scrapped due to injury. While bigger names shuffled around, this middleweight scrap stayed locked in place, giving both fighters a clear path to fight night on February 28.
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Jose Medina breakdown
Jose Medina's recent form
Ryan Gandra steps into the Octagon looking to get his first UFC win, and he's doing it in front of a wild Mexico City crowd against Jose Daniel Medina. Here's the thing: Medina's had a brutal run in the UFC. He got finished in the first round twice, caught by a nasty rear naked choke from Dusko Todorovic and then ate a brutal knee from Ateba Gautier. Before that, he went the distance with Zachary Reese but lost a clear decision. Three straight losses is a tough spot to be in.
If Gandra's going to get a finish, it'll likely come in that first round when Medina's been most vulnerable.
Gandra's the fresh blood here, making his debut on the prelims at Arena CDMX. We don't have his full fight history yet, but the UFC clearly sees something in him to book this matchup. Medina fights orthodox and has shown he can survive into the later rounds, but those early finishes are a red flag. When the pressure comes, he's cracked. This feels like a classic UFC matchup where one guy needs to prove he belongs and the other guy desperately needs to stop the bleeding.
Medina's been in there with legit competition, so he knows what Octagon jitters feel like. Gandra's walking into a building that's going to be absolutely electric. The question is whether Medina can use that experience or if Gandra's got the tools to make it four straight losses for Chicho. The bout survived the recent card shakeup that saw the main event get scrapped due to injury. While bigger names shuffled around, this middleweight scrap stayed locked in place, giving both fighters a clear path to fight night on February 28.
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Ryan Gandra breakdown
Ryan Gandra's recent form
Pace delta
+2.2 significant strikes/min
Jose Medina averages 2.2 significant strikes per minute while Ryan Gandra sits at 0.0.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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