AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


This is the fight everyone's been fantasy booking since Makhachev moved up to welterweight. Islam just became a two-division champ by grinding out Jack Della Maddalena over five rounds at UFC 322 in New York, and Ian Garry immediately called him out after stuffing all seven of Belal Muhammad's takedown attempts in Qatar. Garry literally said "Belal couldn't take me down, so Islam, you try to take me down." That's the kind of confidence that gets fans hyped. Here's what makes this matchup so wild: Makhachev is the king of control, that suffocating Dagestani pressure that broke Dustin Poirier with a fifth-round D'Arce choke and put Renato Moicano away in under four minutes.
But Garry's takedown defense looked scary good against Muhammad, and his striking volume is insane. He landed 141 shots over five rounds against Carlos Prates. The question everyone wants answered: can Islam's wrestling crack that defense, or will Garry's movement and output give him problems? Makhachev's riding a 16 fight win streak that ties Anderson Silva's octagon record, mixing submissions with that brutal head kick that slept Alexander Volkanovski in the rematch.
Garry's only got one loss on his record (that decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov) and he's been on a tear since, beating former champ Muhammad and looking more dangerous every time out. This would answer whether Islam's ground game travels to 170 against elite competition, or if Garry's the guy to end that historic streak. The stakes couldn't be bigger: Makhachev's welterweight title on the line, his legacy as a two-division champ, and Garry's shot at proving he's the best in the world like he claims. This is the kind of fight that defines careers.
UFC Record Breakdown
If Islam gets his hands locked, it's D'Arce choke city, but if Garry keeps it standing into the championship rounds, his pace could be the difference.

Islam Makhachev finish map

Islam Makhachev breakdown
This is the fight everyone's been fantasy booking since Makhachev moved up to welterweight. Islam just became a two-division champ by grinding out Jack Della Maddalena over five rounds at UFC 322 in New York, and Ian Garry immediately called him out after stuffing all seven of Belal Muhammad's takedown attempts in Qatar. Garry literally said "Belal couldn't take me down, so Islam, you try to take me down." That's the kind of confidence that gets fans hyped. Here's what makes this matchup so wild: Makhachev is the king of control, that suffocating Dagestani pressure that broke Dustin Poirier with a fifth-round D'Arce choke and put Renato Moicano away in under four minutes.
But Garry's takedown defense looked scary good against Muhammad, and his striking volume is insane. He landed 141 shots over five rounds against Carlos Prates. The question everyone wants answered: can Islam's wrestling crack that defense, or will Garry's movement and output give him problems? Makhachev's riding a 16 fight win streak that ties Anderson Silva's octagon record, mixing submissions with that brutal head kick that slept Alexander Volkanovski in the rematch.
Garry's only got one loss on his record (that decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov) and he's been on a tear since, beating former champ Muhammad and looking more dangerous every time out. This would answer whether Islam's ground game travels to 170 against elite competition, or if Garry's the guy to end that historic streak. The stakes couldn't be bigger: Makhachev's welterweight title on the line, his legacy as a two-division champ, and Garry's shot at proving he's the best in the world like he claims. This is the kind of fight that defines careers.
If Islam gets his hands locked, it's D'Arce choke city, but if Garry keeps it standing into the championship rounds, his pace could be the difference.

Ian Garry finish map

Ian Garry breakdown
Pace delta
+2.2 significant strikes/min
Ian Garry averages 4.8 significant strikes per minute while Islam Makhachev sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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