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UFC Record Breakdown
This middleweight scrap has some serious layers to it. Mansur Abdul-Malik just got starched by Yousri Belgaroui with a nasty knee in the clinch back in March, snapping a three fight win streak that had people buzzing. The UFC even named him one of their 2026 breakout fighters before that loss, so there's pressure to prove he belongs in that conversation. Dustin Stoltzfus is coming off back to back decision losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Nursulton Ruziboev, sitting at 3-7 in the UFC. He needs this one bad.
If either guy gets hurt in the clinch or on the ground, this one ends fast.
Here's the thing about Abdul-Malik, when he's rolling, he's dangerous everywhere. That standing guillotine that finished Antonio Trocoli in 69 seconds last December was sick. He also put away Dusko Todorovic and Nick Klein with ground and pound finishes. But that Belgaroui loss showed he can get caught in the clinch when things get tight. Stoltzfus has some real moments on his resume too.
That spinning back elbow knockout loss to Brunno Ferreira was brutal, but he also choked out Punahele Soriano and knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault in the first round. This feels like a classic striker versus grappler battle, except both guys can finish you multiple ways. Abdul-Malik's got the momentum question hanging over him after that knockout loss. Stoltzfus is fighting for his UFC life at this point. Someone's getting their hand raised, and someone's probably getting cut.
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This middleweight scrap has some serious layers to it. Mansur Abdul-Malik just got starched by Yousri Belgaroui with a nasty knee in the clinch back in March, snapping a three fight win streak that had people buzzing. The UFC even named him one of their 2026 breakout fighters before that loss, so there's pressure to prove he belongs in that conversation. Dustin Stoltzfus is coming off back to back decision losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Nursulton Ruziboev, sitting at 3-7 in the UFC. He needs this one bad.
If either guy gets hurt in the clinch or on the ground, this one ends fast.
Here's the thing about Abdul-Malik, when he's rolling, he's dangerous everywhere. That standing guillotine that finished Antonio Trocoli in 69 seconds last December was sick. He also put away Dusko Todorovic and Nick Klein with ground and pound finishes. But that Belgaroui loss showed he can get caught in the clinch when things get tight. Stoltzfus has some real moments on his resume too.
That spinning back elbow knockout loss to Brunno Ferreira was brutal, but he also choked out Punahele Soriano and knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault in the first round. This feels like a classic striker versus grappler battle, except both guys can finish you multiple ways. Abdul-Malik's got the momentum question hanging over him after that knockout loss. Stoltzfus is fighting for his UFC life at this point. Someone's getting their hand raised, and someone's probably getting cut.
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Mansur Abdul-Malik breakdown
Mansur Abdul-Malik's recent form
Pace delta
Pace profiles are nearly identical across the official stat splits.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
