Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Aug 15, 2026Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

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Lucas Fernando

Record: 14-3-0

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Rafael Tobias

Record: 14-3-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Lucas Fernando

Rafael Tobias

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Lucas Fernando

Rafael Tobias

Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Lucas Fernando

KO/TKO (100%)

Rafael Tobias

Losses (100%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy57%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Cardio & Endurance85%

Fight IQ85%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy32%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense100%

Cardio & Endurance70%

Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Lucas Fernando

Rafael Tobias

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From opening bell, Lucas Fernando can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 3.7 significant strikes per minute while Rafael Tobias looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

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Streak:1

Lucas Fernando

Lucas Fernando finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (100%)

Lucas Fernando breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy57%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Cardio & Endurance85%

Fight IQ85%

Lucas Fernando's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Rafael Tobias must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Rafael Tobias owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (40%) but must solve the — sprawl from Lucas Fernando.

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

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Rafael Tobias

Rafael Tobias finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

Losses (100%)

Rafael Tobias breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy32%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense100%

Cardio & Endurance70%

Fight IQ90%

Rafael Tobias's recent form

Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

6'3" (191 cm)

•

6'2" (188 cm)

Weight

205 lbs (93 kg)

•

205 lbs (93 kg)

Reach

80" (203 cm)

•

74" (188 cm)

Stance

Orthodox

•

Orthodox

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.5 significant strikes/min

Lucas Fernando averages 3.7 significant strikes per minute while Rafael Tobias sits at 2.2.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Fernando vs Tobias odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Fernando vs Tobias

Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias is on the UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry card on Aug 15, 2026 at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Fernando vs Tobias: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.