UFC Record Breakdown
The light heavyweight title is up for grabs after Alex Pereira vacated to chase heavyweight gold, and we're getting a banger to crown the new champ. Jiri Prochazka, the wild Czech striker who's been through wars with Pereira twice, gets another shot at the belt. Carlos Ulberg, the City Kickboxing product they call Black Jag, has been on an absolute tear and earned this moment with five straight wins. Jiri's been on fire lately, stopping Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. back to back in 2025. That Rountree fight at UFC 320 was nasty, landing 71 strikes before finishing him in the third. But everyone remembers those Pereira losses, especially that head kick at UFC 303 that put him out cold in round two.
Both guys have been finishing fights in round three lately, so if this one survives the early fireworks, expect someone to break in the championship rounds.
Ulberg's path has been different but just as impressive. He starched Dominick Reyes in under five minutes last September in Perth, then went to London and outworked former champ Jan Blachowicz over three rounds. Before that, he needed just 12 seconds to sleep Alonzo Menifield. This is orthodox versus orthodox, two guys who love to strike but bring totally different energy. Jiri's this chaotic pressure fighter who throws spinning shit and walks through fire. Ulberg's more calculated, that crisp kickboxing background showing in how he picks his shots.
The Black Jag has been finishing or dominating everyone, while Jiri's proven he can hang in championship rounds and come back from adversity. For Jiri, it's redemption after those Pereira losses. For Ulberg, it's validation that City Kickboxing can produce another champion. Jiri showed up to fight week with a completely shaved head, ditching his signature samurai topknot in what looks like a fresh mental reset for his third title shot. Miami's gonna be electric for this one, and we're now just two days away from crowning a new light heavyweight king.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysis
Carlos Ulberg finish map

Carlos Ulberg breakdown
Carlos Ulberg's recent form
The light heavyweight title is up for grabs after Alex Pereira vacated to chase heavyweight gold, and we're getting a banger to crown the new champ. Jiri Prochazka, the wild Czech striker who's been through wars with Pereira twice, gets another shot at the belt. Carlos Ulberg, the City Kickboxing product they call Black Jag, has been on an absolute tear and earned this moment with five straight wins. Jiri's been on fire lately, stopping Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. back to back in 2025. That Rountree fight at UFC 320 was nasty, landing 71 strikes before finishing him in the third. But everyone remembers those Pereira losses, especially that head kick at UFC 303 that put him out cold in round two.
Both guys have been finishing fights in round three lately, so if this one survives the early fireworks, expect someone to break in the championship rounds.
Ulberg's path has been different but just as impressive. He starched Dominick Reyes in under five minutes last September in Perth, then went to London and outworked former champ Jan Blachowicz over three rounds. Before that, he needed just 12 seconds to sleep Alonzo Menifield. This is orthodox versus orthodox, two guys who love to strike but bring totally different energy. Jiri's this chaotic pressure fighter who throws spinning shit and walks through fire. Ulberg's more calculated, that crisp kickboxing background showing in how he picks his shots.
The Black Jag has been finishing or dominating everyone, while Jiri's proven he can hang in championship rounds and come back from adversity. For Jiri, it's redemption after those Pereira losses. For Ulberg, it's validation that City Kickboxing can produce another champion. Jiri showed up to fight week with a completely shaved head, ditching his signature samurai topknot in what looks like a fresh mental reset for his third title shot. Miami's gonna be electric for this one, and we're now just two days away from crowning a new light heavyweight king.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysis
Alex Pereira finish map

Alex Pereira breakdown
Alex Pereira's recent form
Pace delta
+1.4 significant strikes/min
Carlos Ulberg averages 6.5 significant strikes per minute while Alex Pereira sits at 5.2.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events
UFC 328 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC White House • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 328 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC White House • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 327 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

Carlos Ulberg vs Alex Pereira odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.