Shavkat RakhmonovvsIslam Makhachev

From opening bell, Shavkat Rakhmonov can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 3.3 significant strikes per minute while Islam Makhachev looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Southpaw stance angles.

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and craftier counter windows and better damage mitigation could flip the entire narrative. Islam Makhachev must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Islam Makhachev owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (53%) but must solve the 85% sprawl from Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.