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UFC Record Breakdown
Tim Elliott just pulled off something wild at UFC 319, catching Kai Asakura in a guillotine from mount in round two. That's his second straight submission finish after choking out Sumudaerji back in December 2023. Meanwhile, Steve Erceg is coming off a decision win over Ode Osbourne in August, bouncing back after that brutal first round knockout loss to Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in Perth. Erceg's had a crazy year, going five rounds with Brandon Moreno and another five with Alexandre Pantoja for the title at UFC 301. Here's the thing about this matchup. Elliott is a southpaw grappling wizard who's been finishing guys left and right.
If Elliott gets a takedown in rounds two or three, that's when the submission threat becomes real.
That guillotine over Asakura showed he's still got nasty submission skills even at this stage of his career. Erceg is more of a volume striker who likes to piece guys up from range, but he's struggled when the power shows up. That Kara-France knockout happened just four minutes into the fight. The technical battle is fascinating. Elliott landed 6 out of 7 takedowns against Victor Altamirano and controlled him for over 11 minutes. Erceg threw 282 strikes against Moreno but couldn't land a single takedown.
If Elliott can drag this to the mat, his submission game is dangerous as hell. Erceg needs to keep it standing and use his reach, but Elliott's tricky and unpredictable. This is a real crossroads scrap. Elliott's riding high with momentum, while Erceg is trying to prove that title shot run wasn't a fluke.
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Steve Erceg finish map
Steve Erceg breakdown
Steve Erceg's recent form
Tim Elliott just pulled off something wild at UFC 319, catching Kai Asakura in a guillotine from mount in round two. That's his second straight submission finish after choking out Sumudaerji back in December 2023. Meanwhile, Steve Erceg is coming off a decision win over Ode Osbourne in August, bouncing back after that brutal first round knockout loss to Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in Perth. Erceg's had a crazy year, going five rounds with Brandon Moreno and another five with Alexandre Pantoja for the title at UFC 301. Here's the thing about this matchup. Elliott is a southpaw grappling wizard who's been finishing guys left and right.
If Elliott gets a takedown in rounds two or three, that's when the submission threat becomes real.
That guillotine over Asakura showed he's still got nasty submission skills even at this stage of his career. Erceg is more of a volume striker who likes to piece guys up from range, but he's struggled when the power shows up. That Kara-France knockout happened just four minutes into the fight. The technical battle is fascinating. Elliott landed 6 out of 7 takedowns against Victor Altamirano and controlled him for over 11 minutes. Erceg threw 282 strikes against Moreno but couldn't land a single takedown.
If Elliott can drag this to the mat, his submission game is dangerous as hell. Erceg needs to keep it standing and use his reach, but Elliott's tricky and unpredictable. This is a real crossroads scrap. Elliott's riding high with momentum, while Erceg is trying to prove that title shot run wasn't a fluke.
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Tim Elliott finish map
Tim Elliott breakdown
Tim Elliott's recent form
Pace delta
+0.6 significant strikes/min
Steve Erceg averages 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Tim Elliott sits at 3.4.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliott odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
