UFC Fight Night
Sep 12, 2026TomorrowDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

POWERED BY AGENTMMA.COM

Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Edgar Chairez 3.6 SLpM, Tim Elliott 3.4 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Edgar Chairez 45%, Tim Elliott 44%
  • Damage Avoidance: Edgar Chairez 4.8 abs/min, Tim Elliott 2.6 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Edgar Chairez —, Tim Elliott 47%
  • Takedown Defense: Edgar Chairez 38%, Tim Elliott 59%
  • Submission Threat: Edgar Chairez 1.3 per 15m, Tim Elliott 1.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Edgar Chairez
Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Edgar Chairez
4-2UFC Record
Sub (58%)
Decision (19%)
Losses (22%)
No Contest (1)
Tim Elliott
10-12UFC Record
Sub (19%)
Decision (45%)
Losses (35%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy45%
Grappling Efficiency70%
Takedown Defense38%
Cardio & Endurance72%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy44%
Grappling Efficiency58%
Takedown Defense59%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Edgar Chairez
Tim Elliott
Betting odds

Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott sportsbook odds

Edgar Chairez is the betting favourite at -215 (1.47), with Tim Elliott priced at +183 (2.83). Both prices are shown in American and decimal format.

Edgar Chairez

FavouriteImplied 68.3%
-2151.47

Tim Elliott

Implied 35.3%Line shortening
+1832.83

The green percentage is the Polymarket prediction market; the amber line is the sportsbook moneyline. They price the same fight two different ways.

Odds are based on bookmaker betting lines and reflect an average value, and they can move at any time. AgentMMA is not a bookmaker and takes no bets.

Fans have a real reason to circle this flyweight fight. Chairez arrives with three straight wins, capped by the rear naked choke on Bruno Silva, while Elliott is trying to shake off a unanimous decision loss to Steve Erceg. Still, everyone remembers Elliott’s guillotine from mount against Kai Asakura, so nobody expects a calm night once bodies start twisting. Here’s the thing, this is not a neat striker versus grappler setup.

Key Storylines
  • Elliott brings veteran chaos into Chairez’s three fight surge
  • The younger Mexican carries the reach, Elliott owns the stranger scrambles
  • Both men have recent chokes from positions opponents failed to read
Finishing Window

The fight is most likely to break open during the first extended scramble, because both men attack openings before positions have time to settle.

Elliott is a southpaw who turns takedowns into messy chains, rolls through bad spots, and reaches for necks while everyone else is still figuring out the position. Chairez is younger, has the longer reach, and has shown he can hunt the back or threaten from bottom, just like the triangle he caught on Daniel Lacerda. Technically, the first grip matters a ton. Elliott wants pressure, repeated shots, and enough chaos to make clean technique feel impossible, but he cannot get lazy when Chairez starts climbing toward the back.

Chairez needs to manage the southpaw look, use his reach before contact, and stay sharp through every roll, because Elliott can turn a defended takedown into another attack without warning. The split decision over Felipe Bunes also showed Chairez can stay in a tight fight when the quick opening never comes. That is what makes this so sick. Chairez is pushing a hot run forward, while Elliott is trying to prove one rough night has not dulled the weird game that has troubled flyweights for years.

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Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott Stats Comparison

Age
30
39
Height
5'7" (170 cm)
5'7" (170 cm)
Weight
125 lbs (57 kg)
125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach
71" (180 cm)
66" (168 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.3 significant strikes/min

Edgar Chairez averages 3.6 significant strikes per minute while Tim Elliott sits at 3.4.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Edgar Chairez and Tim Elliott, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Chairez vs Elliott odds

Live Polymarket odds for Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Chairez vs Elliott

Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott is on the UFC Fight Night card on Sep 12, 2026 at Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Chairez vs Elliott: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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