AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Ricky Turcios is in a tough spot right now. The Team Alpha Male fighter is riding a rough stretch, dropping three straight including a recent unanimous decision loss to Benardo Sopaj at UFC 311 in January. Before that, Raul Rosas Jr. caught him with a rear naked choke, and he also fell to Aiemann Zahabi on the scorecards. When things are clicking, Turcios can put on a show. Remember that wild split decision over Brady Hiestand where he landed 201 strikes?
That's the volume fighter he can be when he's on. Cameron Smotherman isn't exactly rolling in hot either. The Baby Faced Killa has dropped his last two, losing decisions to both Ricky Simon and Serhiy Sidey in 2025. His lone UFC win came against Jake Hadley last October, so he's sitting at 1 and 2 in the promotion. Both these guys are fighting with their backs against the wall, which usually means we get desperate, hungry performances.
This matchup comes down to who can impose their game first. Turcios loves to throw volume and stay busy, mixing in takedowns when he needs them. Smotherman needs to find a way to slow down that pace and make Turcios uncomfortable. Both guys are orthodox, both training out of solid camps, and both need this win badly to stay relevant in the bantamweight division.
UFC Record Breakdown
Expect the pace to hit another level in round two when both guys realize they're running out of time to make an impression.

Cameron Smotherman finish map

Cameron Smotherman breakdown
Ricky Turcios is in a tough spot right now. The Team Alpha Male fighter is riding a rough stretch, dropping three straight including a recent unanimous decision loss to Benardo Sopaj at UFC 311 in January. Before that, Raul Rosas Jr. caught him with a rear naked choke, and he also fell to Aiemann Zahabi on the scorecards. When things are clicking, Turcios can put on a show. Remember that wild split decision over Brady Hiestand where he landed 201 strikes?
That's the volume fighter he can be when he's on. Cameron Smotherman isn't exactly rolling in hot either. The Baby Faced Killa has dropped his last two, losing decisions to both Ricky Simon and Serhiy Sidey in 2025. His lone UFC win came against Jake Hadley last October, so he's sitting at 1 and 2 in the promotion. Both these guys are fighting with their backs against the wall, which usually means we get desperate, hungry performances.
This matchup comes down to who can impose their game first. Turcios loves to throw volume and stay busy, mixing in takedowns when he needs them. Smotherman needs to find a way to slow down that pace and make Turcios uncomfortable. Both guys are orthodox, both training out of solid camps, and both need this win badly to stay relevant in the bantamweight division.
Expect the pace to hit another level in round two when both guys realize they're running out of time to make an impression.

Ricky Turcios finish map

Ricky Turcios breakdown
Pace delta
+0.4 significant strikes/min
Cameron Smotherman averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute while Ricky Turcios sits at 4.7.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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