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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Thomas Petersen is walking into this one trying to shake off a brutal 2025. "The Train" got knocked out twice last year, first by Shamil Gaziev in just over three minutes in Saudi Arabia, then by Vitor Petrino in the third round back in October. Those are the kind of losses that make you question everything, but here's the thing: when Petersen's wrestling is clicking, he's a problem. That unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes in Des Moines showed what he can do when he's on, landing 9 out of 9 takedowns and controlling over 13 minutes of fight time. Guilherme "Kong" Pat is coming off a solid unanimous decision win over Allen Frye Jr. in December at UFC Vegas.
If Petersen can't get this to the mat early, those knockout losses start looking like a pattern by round two.
Not much tape on this guy yet, but he went the full 15 minutes and got his hand raised, so he's got some confidence rolling into this one. The mystery around Pat makes this interesting because nobody really knows what Petersen's going to face. This is a classic crossroads fight for Petersen. He's got the wrestling pedigree from Spartan MMA and the southpaw stance that can give guys fits, but those knockout losses are fresh.
Can he get back to grinding dudes down like he did against Mayes, or is his chin becoming a liability at heavyweight? Pat's gotta prove he belongs, and catching a struggling veteran is the perfect opportunity to make a statement. The UFC officially locked this one in for the April 4th Fight Night card at the Apex, giving both guys about six weeks to prepare.
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Thomas Petersen breakdown
Thomas Petersen's recent form
Thomas Petersen is walking into this one trying to shake off a brutal 2025. "The Train" got knocked out twice last year, first by Shamil Gaziev in just over three minutes in Saudi Arabia, then by Vitor Petrino in the third round back in October. Those are the kind of losses that make you question everything, but here's the thing: when Petersen's wrestling is clicking, he's a problem. That unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes in Des Moines showed what he can do when he's on, landing 9 out of 9 takedowns and controlling over 13 minutes of fight time. Guilherme "Kong" Pat is coming off a solid unanimous decision win over Allen Frye Jr. in December at UFC Vegas.
If Petersen can't get this to the mat early, those knockout losses start looking like a pattern by round two.
Not much tape on this guy yet, but he went the full 15 minutes and got his hand raised, so he's got some confidence rolling into this one. The mystery around Pat makes this interesting because nobody really knows what Petersen's going to face. This is a classic crossroads fight for Petersen. He's got the wrestling pedigree from Spartan MMA and the southpaw stance that can give guys fits, but those knockout losses are fresh.
Can he get back to grinding dudes down like he did against Mayes, or is his chin becoming a liability at heavyweight? Pat's gotta prove he belongs, and catching a struggling veteran is the perfect opportunity to make a statement. The UFC officially locked this one in for the April 4th Fight Night card at the Apex, giving both guys about six weeks to prepare.
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Guilherme Pat breakdown
Guilherme Pat's recent form
Pace delta
+0.9 significant strikes/min
Guilherme Pat averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Thomas Petersen sits at 3.4.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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