RAF12
Aug 22, 2026In 33 daysCleveland, OH
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Fighter Performance Comparison

POWERED BY AGENTMMA.COM

Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Belal Muhammad 4.4 SLpM, Colby Covington 3.8 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Belal Muhammad 43%, Colby Covington 38%
  • Damage Avoidance: Belal Muhammad 3.8 abs/min, Colby Covington 3.1 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Belal Muhammad 36%, Colby Covington 42%
  • Takedown Defense: Belal Muhammad 90%, Colby Covington 68%
  • Submission Threat: Belal Muhammad 0.1 per 15m, Colby Covington 0.2 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Belal Muhammad
Colby Covington

Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Belal Muhammad
15-6UFC Record
KO/TKO (10%)
Sub (5%)
Decision (63%)
Losses (21%)
No Contest (1)
Colby Covington
12-5UFC Record
KO/TKO (19%)
Sub (13%)
Decision (45%)
Losses (23%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy43%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense90%
Cardio & Endurance80%
Fight IQ85%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy38%
Grappling Efficiency52%
Takedown Defense68%
Cardio & Endurance80%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Belal Muhammad
Colby Covington

This one's got some serious backstory. Belal Muhammad and Colby Covington nearly threw down at the RAF 11 press conference after Belal beat Ben Askren and Colby took the inaugural RAF Crossover Wrestling title by beating Arman Tsarukyan. Security had to jump in before things got ugly, and RAF immediately booked them for the co-main event at RAF 12. But then Colby pulled an executive decision and backed out, calling Belal unprofessional. Now they're finally locked in for real. Belal's had a rough stretch lately.

Key Storylines
  • Press conference brawl led to this grudge match booking
  • Both former UFC contenders now battling in pure wrestling
  • Belal on three fight skid, Colby looking to rebuild momentum
Finishing Window

These guys have the gas tanks to go hard all match, so the finish could come anytime someone gets caught slipping on a scramble.

He won the UFC welterweight belt when he beat Leon Edwards back in July 2024, but then lost it to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315. After that, he dropped decisions to Ian Machado Garry and Gabriel Bonfim. Three straight losses for a guy who grinded his way to the top. Colby's been on a slide too. He lost his title shot against Leon Edwards at UFC 296, then got stopped by Joaquin Buckley with a nasty cut in December 2024. But he looked sharp beating Tsarukyan at RAF 11, so maybe he's finding something in this wrestling format.

This is pure wrestling, not MMA, which changes everything. Both guys are grinders with serious cardio and wrestling pedigree. Belal's always been about pressure and pace, while Colby's known for that relentless chain wrestling. In a straight wrestling match, it's gonna come down to who can impose their game and who's got the better technique when the gloves are off. The bad blood is real after that press conference chaos, so expect both guys to be fired up.

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Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington Stats Comparison

Age
38
38
Height
5'11" (180 cm)
5'11" (180 cm)
Weight
170 lbs (77 kg)
170 lbs (77 kg)
Reach
72" (183 cm)
72" (183 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.6 significant strikes/min

Belal Muhammad averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute while Colby Covington sits at 3.8.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Belal Muhammad and Colby Covington, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Muhammad vs Covington odds

Live Polymarket odds for Belal Muhammad vs Colby Covington are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

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