Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

May 16, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

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Arnold Allen

Record: 21-4-0

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Melquizael Costa

Record: 26-8-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Arnold Allen

Melquizael Costa

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Arnold Allen

Melquizael Costa

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Arnold Allen

KO/TKO (14%)

Sub (14%)

Decision (56%)

Losses (17%)

Melquizael Costa

KO/TKO (22%)

Sub (22%)

Decision (33%)

Losses (23%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy43%

Grappling Efficiency70%

Takedown Defense73%

Cardio & Endurance80%

Fight IQ80%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense50%

Cardio & Endurance76%

Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Arnold Allen

Melquizael Costa

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From opening bell, Arnold Allen can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 3.5 significant strikes per minute while Melquizael Costa looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Southpaw stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

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Streak:1

Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (14%)

Sub (14%)

Decision (56%)

Losses (17%)

Arnold Allen breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy43%

Grappling Efficiency70%

Takedown Defense73%

Cardio & Endurance80%

Fight IQ80%

Arnold Allen's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Melquizael Costa must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Arnold Allen brings the more polished entries (60%) while Melquizael Costa relies on defensive frames (50%).

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

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Melquizael Costa

Melquizael Costa finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (22%)

Sub (22%)

Decision (33%)

Losses (23%)

Melquizael Costa breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense50%

Cardio & Endurance76%

Fight IQ75%

Melquizael Costa's recent form

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

5'8" (173 cm)

•

5'10" (178 cm)

Weight

145 lbs (66 kg)

•

145 lbs (66 kg)

Reach

70" (178 cm)

•

71" (180 cm)

Stance

Southpaw

•

Southpaw

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.8 significant strikes/min

Melquizael Costa averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Arnold Allen sits at 3.5.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Allen vs Costa odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Allen vs Costa

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa is on the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card on May 16, 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Allen vs Costa: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.