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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Sumudaerji is riding a nice two fight win streak after bouncing back from some rough losses. The Tibetan Eagle got back on track with a split decision over Mitch Raposo at UFC 314 in Miami, then followed it up with a cleaner unanimous decision against Kevin Borjas in Shanghai last August. Both fights went the distance, with Sumudaerji landing over 75 strikes in each. But here's the thing, before that he got submitted twice in brutal fashion. Matt Schnell caught him in a triangle in round two, then Tim Elliott wrapped up an arm triangle in the first round.
If this fight hits the ground in rounds one or two, someone's getting caught in a submission.
Those losses showed some holes in his grappling defense. Jesus Aguilar is coming off a wild performance in San Antonio where he beat Luis Gurule by unanimous decision. Dude threw 237 strikes in that fight, landing 87 of them. That's a crazy pace for a flyweight. Before that he dropped a decision to Rafael Estevam, but his most impressive moment was that guillotine finish of Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 in Perth.
Caught it from bottom guard just 2:39 into the first round. That submission game could be a problem for Sumudaerji. This matchup comes down to whether Aguilar can get it to the ground and hunt for a finish, or if Sumudaerji can keep it standing and work his striking volume. The Tibetan Eagle has been gun shy on takedowns lately, attempting just five total in his last two fights and landing zero. Aguilar isn't a wrestling machine either, but he's shown he can capitalize when the fight hits the mat.
Sumudaerji Sumudaerji finish map
Sumudaerji Sumudaerji breakdown
Sumudaerji Sumudaerji's recent form
Sumudaerji is riding a nice two fight win streak after bouncing back from some rough losses. The Tibetan Eagle got back on track with a split decision over Mitch Raposo at UFC 314 in Miami, then followed it up with a cleaner unanimous decision against Kevin Borjas in Shanghai last August. Both fights went the distance, with Sumudaerji landing over 75 strikes in each. But here's the thing, before that he got submitted twice in brutal fashion. Matt Schnell caught him in a triangle in round two, then Tim Elliott wrapped up an arm triangle in the first round.
If this fight hits the ground in rounds one or two, someone's getting caught in a submission.
Those losses showed some holes in his grappling defense. Jesus Aguilar is coming off a wild performance in San Antonio where he beat Luis Gurule by unanimous decision. Dude threw 237 strikes in that fight, landing 87 of them. That's a crazy pace for a flyweight. Before that he dropped a decision to Rafael Estevam, but his most impressive moment was that guillotine finish of Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 in Perth.
Caught it from bottom guard just 2:39 into the first round. That submission game could be a problem for Sumudaerji. This matchup comes down to whether Aguilar can get it to the ground and hunt for a finish, or if Sumudaerji can keep it standing and work his striking volume. The Tibetan Eagle has been gun shy on takedowns lately, attempting just five total in his last two fights and landing zero. Aguilar isn't a wrestling machine either, but he's shown he can capitalize when the fight hits the mat.
Jesus Aguilar finish map
Jesus Aguilar breakdown
Jesus Aguilar's recent form
Pace delta
+1.8 significant strikes/min
Sumudaerji Sumudaerji averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute while Jesus Aguilar sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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