AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
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Rafael "Bipolar" Tobias steps into the Octagon for his UFC debut, and honestly, we don't have much tape on him at the elite level. That nickname alone has fans curious about what kind of chaos he might bring. Meanwhile, Diyar Nurgozhay is coming off back to back submission losses that have everyone wondering if his ground game is a serious problem or just bad luck. Here's the thing about Nurgozhay's recent skid. He got caught in an Ezekiel choke from guard against Uran Satybaldiev in Shanghai, then ate a kimura from bottom side control against Brendson Ribeiro in Vegas.
If this fight hits the ground, someone's getting finished before the final bell.
Both times he actually looked decent on the feet and even hit a takedown against Satybaldiev, but once things hit the mat, he got finished. That's a scary pattern for a southpaw from Kazakhstan who fights out of Tobet Top Team. Tobias is the total mystery here. No UFC fights means we're all guessing what version shows up Saturday night. Does that "Bipolar" nickname hint at wild swings in his fighting style?
Is he gonna come out guns blazing or try to be tactical? Nurgozhay needs this one badly after dropping two straight, and he's shown he can land strikes and get takedowns. But if this hits the ground and Tobias has any submission skills, we might see that losing streak hit three.
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Diyar Nurgozhay breakdown
Diyar Nurgozhay's recent form
Rafael "Bipolar" Tobias steps into the Octagon for his UFC debut, and honestly, we don't have much tape on him at the elite level. That nickname alone has fans curious about what kind of chaos he might bring. Meanwhile, Diyar Nurgozhay is coming off back to back submission losses that have everyone wondering if his ground game is a serious problem or just bad luck. Here's the thing about Nurgozhay's recent skid. He got caught in an Ezekiel choke from guard against Uran Satybaldiev in Shanghai, then ate a kimura from bottom side control against Brendson Ribeiro in Vegas.
If this fight hits the ground, someone's getting finished before the final bell.
Both times he actually looked decent on the feet and even hit a takedown against Satybaldiev, but once things hit the mat, he got finished. That's a scary pattern for a southpaw from Kazakhstan who fights out of Tobet Top Team. Tobias is the total mystery here. No UFC fights means we're all guessing what version shows up Saturday night. Does that "Bipolar" nickname hint at wild swings in his fighting style?
Is he gonna come out guns blazing or try to be tactical? Nurgozhay needs this one badly after dropping two straight, and he's shown he can land strikes and get takedowns. But if this hits the ground and Tobias has any submission skills, we might see that losing streak hit three.
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Rafael Tobias breakdown
Rafael Tobias's recent form
Pace delta
+3.0 significant strikes/min
Diyar Nurgozhay averages 3.0 significant strikes per minute while Rafael Tobias sits at 0.0.
AI confidence
81%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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