AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Muhammad Naimov is riding a three-fight win streak that's got people paying attention. The Tajikistan native has been grinding out decisions lately - he outworked Bogdan Grad in Baku back in June, then took a unanimous nod over Kaan Ofli in February. Before that run, he bounced back from a tough submission loss to Felipe Lima with a nasty first-round finish of Erik Silva in Mexico City, where Silva couldn't continue due to a leg injury just 44 seconds in. Mairon Santos is coming in hot too, riding his own three-fight win streak. "The Legend" just beat Sodiq Yusuff by decision in May at lightweight, showing he can hang with legit competition.
Before that, he edged Francis Marshall in a split decision at UFC 313, then knocked out that same Kaan Ofli guy back in August 2024 with a second-round punch. So Santos has the finish over Ofli while Naimov had to work three rounds for the decision - that's an interesting wrinkle. Here's the thing about this matchup: both guys are orthodox strikers who've been winning, but in different ways. Naimov's been patient, landing volume and mixing in takedowns when he needs them - he hit 2-for-2 on takedowns against Ofli and controlled over five minutes.
Santos has shown more finishing power lately, especially with that knockout of Ofli. The question is whether Naimov's grinding style can neutralize Santos' power, or if "The Legend" catches him clean like he's been doing.

UFC Record Breakdown
If Santos is gonna land that fight-ending shot, it's probably coming in round two when Naimov starts pressing forward.

Mairon Santos finish map

Mairon Santos breakdown
Muhammad Naimov is riding a three-fight win streak that's got people paying attention. The Tajikistan native has been grinding out decisions lately - he outworked Bogdan Grad in Baku back in June, then took a unanimous nod over Kaan Ofli in February. Before that run, he bounced back from a tough submission loss to Felipe Lima with a nasty first-round finish of Erik Silva in Mexico City, where Silva couldn't continue due to a leg injury just 44 seconds in. Mairon Santos is coming in hot too, riding his own three-fight win streak. "The Legend" just beat Sodiq Yusuff by decision in May at lightweight, showing he can hang with legit competition.
Before that, he edged Francis Marshall in a split decision at UFC 313, then knocked out that same Kaan Ofli guy back in August 2024 with a second-round punch. So Santos has the finish over Ofli while Naimov had to work three rounds for the decision - that's an interesting wrinkle. Here's the thing about this matchup: both guys are orthodox strikers who've been winning, but in different ways. Naimov's been patient, landing volume and mixing in takedowns when he needs them - he hit 2-for-2 on takedowns against Ofli and controlled over five minutes.
Santos has shown more finishing power lately, especially with that knockout of Ofli. The question is whether Naimov's grinding style can neutralize Santos' power, or if "The Legend" catches him clean like he's been doing.
If Santos is gonna land that fight-ending shot, it's probably coming in round two when Naimov starts pressing forward.
Muhammad Naimov finish map

Muhammad Naimov breakdown
Pace delta
+0.6 significant strikes/min
Mairon Santos averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute while Muhammad Naimov sits at 2.9.
AI confidence
76%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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AI War Room Preview
AgentMMA's models flagged a high-confidence edge in this matchup. Unlock the full breakdown, confidence grade, and staking plan for Mairon Santos vs Muhammad Naimov.
Confidence grade revealed inside